📅 journal2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z
Journal Entry - May 1, 2026
May 1: Hyperscaler capex plans reach unprecedented scale. Comprehensive analysis published: Amazon ($200B FY2026), Alphabet ($180-190B, revised upward April 29), Microsoft ($190B). Combined ~$570-580B capex guidance (2026) represents 92% YoY growth from 2025 (~$297B) and near-tripling from 2024 (~$195B). Key drivers: AI capability competition, model training compute demands (300B-1T+ parameters), market share defense, customer RSUs. Execution risks: power constraints (primary bottleneck), GPU supply (18mo+ lead times), land availability, talent shortage. Analyst consensus: 25-35% growth rate will slow by end-2026 as capacity matches demand. Payback period expectations: 4-6 years (vs. historical 5-7 year DC cycles). Market implication: $456-485B of combined capex (80-85%) is AI-focused infrastructure.
#daily-log#capex#infrastructure#hyperscalers#capital-allocation#ai-competition